What if the Chicago Bears selected Patrick Mahomes at #2 instead of Mitch Trubisky?

Neel Network
Jul 22
5 min read

What If the Chicago Bears Drafted Patrick Mahomes in 2017?

In the 2017 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears made a decision that would plague the franchise for years: they selected Mitch Trubisky with the second overall pick. But, what if they had made a different choice? What if, instead, the Chicago Bears selected Patrick Mahomes, the QB who went on to win NFL MVP and multiple Super Bowls?

Back in 2017, the Bears, reportedly “obsessed” with finding a QB who had the mold of Drew Brees, had Mahomes as their #2 QB on the board. At one point, Mahomes was reportedly the #1 QB on their board. This hypothetical scenario would initiate a serious butterfly effect throughout the league. This one single decision would alter the trajectories of multiple franchises, most notably the Bears, Chiefs, and Texans.

Mahomes as a Bear

In this reality, the Bears franchise would enter a new era filled with success. Due to Mike Glennon’s poor performance, Mahomes would be the clear-cut day 1 starter. Even with a “downgrade” in coaching staff and supporting cast, Mahomes’s play style of controlled chaos would likely lead him to a Rookie of the Year title. Despite a solid season from Mahomes, the Bears would miss the playoffs, and head coach John Fox would be fired. This would lead to Chiefs OC Matt Nagy still being hired as the Bears' head coach. Nagy, drooling over Mahomes’s potential, would end up being the perfect coach for Mahomes. Nagy, who had evaluated the 2017 QB class as a member of the Chiefs, would know everything Mahomes needed to fix to become one of the NFL’s top QBs.

The Bears' blockbuster trade for Khalil Mack in 2018 would prove to be vital, pairing an electric offense with the elite Bears defense. With Matt Nagy at the helm and an elite defense to support Mahomes, Mahomes’s 2018 season would be very similar to the one he had in Kansas City. Would he throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns? Likely not. But he would definitely establish himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

The 2018 Bears defense was historic, leading the NFL in turnovers forced (36), interceptions (27), and scoring defense, while ranking third in total defense. In the real timeline, the Bears were eliminated from the playoffs due to the infamous “Double Doink”. In this reality, the Bears' offense does not struggle as much and moves on to face the Rams in the Divisional Round. With Mahomes elevating during the playoffs, the Bears moving on to the NFC Championship doesn’t seem like a far-fetched reality. With the Rams gone in the Divisional Round, this means the infamous missed PI call would have never happened in the NFC Championship. Does this mean we would’ve got to see a Brees vs Brady Super Bowl? Maybe. Or does Mahomes take down Brees and get to a Super Bowl in his second year in the league? We will never know.

Drew Brees beating Tom Brady in the Super Bowl

What happens with Trubisky?

There's no denying that coming out of college, Trubisky was one of the top talents. Many NFL teams had him very high on their draft board, one of them being the New York Jets. Trubisky reportedly had a very impressive workout with them. If he were available at #6, it would be hard to see the Jets passing up on him. Reports even said that the Jets' scouts were in love with Trubisky. With the Jets taking Trubisky at #6, this means Sam Darnold never ends up a Jet. Does he have a better career on another team? For the Jets, they would likely end up moving on from Trubisky in a couple of years and continue the search for a franchise QB.

The Chiefs with Deshaun Watson

Let's move on to the Kansas City Chiefs. In this new reality, the trade-up for Patrick Mahomes never happens. Instead, they trade up for a different QB: Deshaun Watson.

The Chiefs were locked in on taking a QB in the 2017 NFL Draft. Chiefs GM Brett Veach hosted Watson for a pre-draft visit, and would have ultimately selected the Clemson QB at #10 after missing out on Patrick Mahomes. If the Chiefs drafted Watson, their immediate future would still be bright, just not on the same meteoric trajectory they were on with Mahomes. Andy Reid would’ve undoubtedly made Watson one of the better QBs in the league. However, by 2021, Watson’s off-field issues would cause the Chiefs to plummet in the NFL rankings. Andy Reid would win significantly fewer Super Bowls, ultimately hurting his coaching legacy.

The Texans Miss Out

With Watson taken at #10, the Houston Texans are left without a franchise QB. They no longer trade up to #12, meaning they keep their 2018 first-round pick. The lack of solid QB play would lead to a poor season in 2017 and give them a very high draft pick in 2018. This means they could have potentially been in play for a QB like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, or even NFL MVP Josh Allen.

How Would Mahomes on the Bears Alter the Super Bowl Winners?

Let’s take a look. Here is how I think the NFL would have played out. This section is rather speculative since there’s no way of actually knowing how the playoffs and matchups would have played out.

Super Bowl Outcomes: Original vs Alternate

Year	Original Winner	New Winner	Why?
2017	Eagles (over Patriots)	Eagles (over Patriots)	Mahomes is a rookie with no immediate impact. The Eagles still win the Super Bowl over the Patriots.
2018	Patriots (over Rams)	Saints (over Patriots)	With Mahomes on the Bears, the double doink never happens. The Bears move on to play the Rams, and with Mahomes’s playoff magic, the Bears advance to the NFC Championship. Due to a lack of experience, Drew Brees gets the best of Mahomes and moves on to play Brady in a classic Super Bowl.
2019	Chiefs (over 49ers)	49ers (over Titans)	Mahomes has an MVP-caliber year, but the 49ers’ dominant defense shuts down the Bears in the NFC Championship. Without Mahomes in KC, the Chiefs aren’t a real threat. Maybe Watson is solid there, but not enough to reach the SB. Ultimately, the Titans make the Super Bowl under the wings of Derrick Henry.
2020	Buccaneers (over Chiefs)	Buccaneers (over Bills)	In reality, the Buccaneers dominated the Super Bowl from start to finish over the Mahomes-led Chiefs. A different AFC opponent does not change this outcome, and Brady still wins his 7th ring.
2021	Rams (over Bengals)	Bears (over Bengals)	This is the year Mahomes finally breaks through. With a loaded defense, the Bears are able to take out the Rams in the playoffs. In Mahomes’s first Super Bowl, he outduels Joe Burrow to secure Chicago’s first ring since 1985.
2022	Chiefs (over Eagles)	Bengals (over Eagles)	With no Mahomes in the AFC, Joe Burrow is able to cruise his way to a second Super Bowl appearance. With Jalen Hurts’s lack of Super Bowl experience, the Bengals are able to capitalize and win their first-ever Super Bowl.
2023	Chiefs (over 49ers)	Bears (over Ravens)	In this timeline, the Bears, led by Patrick Mahomes in his prime, take the NFC by storm, knocking off the Lions in the Divisional Round and then outdueling the 49ers in the NFC Championship. On the AFC side, with Mahomes never playing for Kansas City, the Chiefs aren’t a factor, and Lamar Jackson’s MVP-led Ravens cruise through the conference, taking down the Bills to reach the Super Bowl. Mahomes’s experience proves vital as he wins his second ring.
2024	Eagles (over Chiefs)	Eagles (over Bills)	In the 2024 NFL season, the Eagles will still get their ring. The offense, led by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, proved to be unstoppable. With Mahomes on the Bears, Josh Allen makes it back to another Super Bowl. However, the result would end up being the same as before, as Jalen Hurts leads the Eagles to a ring.